Nigeria Oil Future: Time To Back Aliko Dangote

For 27 years, Nigeria has been repairing the past.Perhaps it is time to invest in the future.

For nearly three decades, successive governments have poured billions of dollars and trillions of naira into Nigeria’s state-owned refineries.

Contracts have been awarded. Contractors have come and gone. Rehabilitation deadlines have been announced with great fanfare. Presidents have promised that the refineries would soon roar back to life.

And Nigerians have waited. Then waited again. Meanwhile, Nigeria — a country blessed with enormous crude oil reserves — has repeatedly imported the petrol, diesel and aviation fuel needed to keep its economy moving. This is not merely an engineering failure. It is a failure of policy, management and political imagination.

And after 27 years, Nigeria should have the courage to admit it. The old model has failed.That is why the country should take a hard look at what Aliko Dangote has built in Lagos.The Dangote refinery is not perfect. Dangote is not infallible. Private companies must be scrutinised just as government institutions must be scrutinised.

But there is something extraordinary about the project that Nigeria should not ignore:A Nigerian private investor built what successive governments struggled for decades to deliver.

A 650,000-barrel-a-day refinery. A vast industrial complex. A project costing roughly $20 billion.A refinery capable of changing the economics of Nigeria’s petroleum industry.That achievement deserves more than applause. It deserves a national policy response.

Stop Repairing The Same Failure
Nigeria has spent decades trapped in a vicious cycle: shutdown, contract, rehabilitation, restart, breakdown — repeat.At some point, the responsible thing to do is stop pretending that another contract will magically produce a different outcome.The state-owned refineries should be judged by one simple standard: Can they operate efficiently, consistently and commercially? If they can, let them compete. If they cannot, government must stop treating previous expenditure as a reason to spend even more.

Money already wasted is gone.It cannot be recovered by throwing good money after bad. Nigeria needs to escape the psychology of the sunk cost. The country cannot build its energy future by endlessly trying to resurrect its industrial past.

Dangote Is Not The Enemy
There is an unfortunate tendency in Nigeria to view the success of a private businessman with suspicion.That instinct must change.Dangote's success is not automatically Nigeria's loss.If his refinery produces fuel competitively, Nigeria benefits.If it creates jobs, Nigeria benefits.If it earns foreign exchange, Nigeria benefits.
If it reduces dependence on imported refined products, Nigeria benefits.If it stimulates petrochemicals, manufacturing, logistics and related industries, Nigeria benefits.
And if Nigerians eventually gain wider ownership of the enterprise through a domestic public offering, the benefits could spread even further.

The appropriate response is not blind worship.It is smart regulation.Give Dangote no special favours.Give him no unfair protection.But give him the same thing every serious investor needs:clear rules, reliable infrastructure, access to raw materials and a stable policy environment.Then let competition decide who wins.

The Absurdity of Importing Crude 
There is perhaps no more embarrassing illustration of Nigeria's dysfunction than this:Nigeria produces crude oil.Nigeria has a giant refinery.Yet the refinery has had to look abroad for part of its crude supply.That should outrage every policymaker in Abuja.

If Nigerian crude is available, Nigerian refineries should be able to buy it on transparent, commercially viable terms.If domestic crude cannot reach domestic refineries at competitive prices, then Nigeria has a policy problem — not a refinery problem.The government should fix it.Immediately.

The objective should not be to make Dangote rich.The objective should be to make Nigeria richer.

This is Bigger Than One Man
Backing Dangote does not mean betting Nigeria's entire future on one businessman.

It means backing an idea:Nigeria should refine more of what it produces.That should be national policy.Dangote should compete with other private refiners.New investors should be welcomed.Existing refiners should be encouraged to expand.State-owned refineries should compete on commercial terms.And consumers should ultimately benefit from greater supply, competition and efficiency.That is how a real petroleum industry works.Not through endless government intervention.Not through opaque contracts.Not through perpetual rehabilitation.Through investment, competition and accountability.

The Government Must Change Its Role
For decades, government has tried to be the owner, operator, financier, regulator and rescuer of Nigeria's petroleum infrastructure.The result has been expensive. Government should increasingly become the referee, not the player.

Set the rules.Enforce the rules.Protect consumers.Prevent monopolistic abuse.Secure crude supply.Build infrastructure.Maintain strategic reserves.Then get out of the way and allow competent capital to compete.Nigeria does not lack entrepreneurs.It lacks a consistent environment in which entrepreneurs can operate at scale.

Dangote's refinery demonstrates what can happen when enormous private capital is willing to take an enormous risk.Imagine what could happen if ten more investors were willing to do the same.

The Next Oil Boom Should Be Refining
Nigeria has spent decades thinking of oil as something that comes out of the ground and leaves the country.That model has enriched too few and exposed the economy to too many shocks.The next phase should be different.Extract less value from exporting crude.Capture more value by refining it.Then go further.

Petrochemicals. Fertiliser.Plastics. Industrial chemicals.Aviation fuel.Marine fuel. Manufacturing.Logistics.Jobs.Exports.

That is how oil becomes an industrial strategy rather than simply an export commodity.Dangote has built the platform.Nigeria must now decide whether its policies will help that platform become an engine of industrialisation.

Don't Repeat The Past
There will be calls for more committees.More reviews.More rehabilitation.More announcements.More billions.Nigeria should resist the temptation.Before another dollar is committed to a state refinery, the public should be shown the business case.

What will it produce? At what cost? For how long? Who will operate it? What happens if it fails again?What is the return on investment?And who is accountable?

Those questions should apply equally to every private refinery.Transparency must be universal. But the standard must also be brutally simple:Does it work?

The Moment Has Come
Nigeria has spent 27 years trying to revive yesterday.Dangote has spent roughly $20 billion building tomorrow.

That contrast should force a national rethink.This is not about choosing Dangote over Nigeria.It is about choosing a Nigeria that works.

A Nigeria that stops importing what it can produce.A Nigeria that stops endlessly financing failure.A Nigeria that rewards investment instead of punishing it.A Nigeria that creates value at home instead of exporting jobs and importing finished products.The government should not hand Aliko Dangote a blank cheque.It should hand Nigerian investors something far more valuable:a level playing field.

Let Dangote compete.Let other refiners compete.Let international investors compete.Let the best operators win.And let Nigerians be the ultimate beneficiaries.

For 27 years, the country has asked when its government refineries will finally work.Perhaps the more important question now is:Why should Nigeria keep waiting?

The future of Nigerian oil does not have to be another rehabilitation contract.It can be a competitive refining industry.It can be private capital.It can be Nigerian crude transformed into Nigerian fuel and Nigerian industrial wealth. And if the man who has taken the biggest risk to make that future possible is Aliko Dangote, then Nigeria should not stand in his way.

It should back him — fairly, transparently and without apology. Because after decades of spending billions trying to repair failure, Nigeria can no longer afford to be afraid of success.The era of repairing the past must end. The era of building Nigeria's oil future must begin.

By Emmanuel Emeke Asiwe (EEA) Publisher/Editor-in Chief.